Decisions under uncertainty are key to growth, says analyst

Alena Padalnitskaya, Head of The League of Analysts at Zubr Capital, shared her perspective on why decision-making under uncertainty has become a critical growth factor for investment ecosystems.

She explained how structured educational formats can help develop smart, high-potential professionals capable of contributing to growth-stage companies and strengthening long-term value creation. 

• Working within an investment ecosystem, what recurring limitations do you observe in fast-growing tech companies?

A: As Head of The League of Analysts at Zubr Capital, I focus on identifying, training, and helping place strong students within Zubr Capital or our portfolio companies. From that vantage point, one recurring limitation I observe in growing companies is execution capacity – the ability to make independent decisions under uncertainty. 

Today, with AI tools, it is easy to generate what looks like the right answer, but much harder to interpret it in context and take responsibility for it. 

The market is saturated with specialists, yet surprisingly empty where real decisions must be made. Junior professionals arrive with knowledge, but hesitate when data is incomplete. They avoid difficult trade-offs and delay action while waiting for clarity. 

Over time, this gap becomes structural and costly for fast-growing companies and the ecosystems around them. In management training, I once heard a phrase that stayed with me: you are ready to grow only when you have grown your replacement. Sustainable growth depends on whether companies are continuously developing the next layer of professionals who are able to take responsibility and act decisively in uncertain environments. 

• Where does this constraint actually originate?

A: Academic systems are often built around predefined problems with clear rules and expected outcomes. The system rewards accurate responses, penalises incorrect answers, and evaluates performance by distance from a reference solution. Over time, this can train people to seek certainty before taking action. 

Education is designed to teach logic and structured thinking, while business requires the ability to make decisions under time pressure and with incomplete information. 

In business, this mindset does not always translate into effectiveness. Decisions must be made under pressure, with limited information and real consequences. Yet many professionals hesitate, waiting for clearer instructions or more data. 

Education can also, at times, shield students from ambiguity. Case studies usually contain all relevant inputs. In real markets, teams rarely have complete information. By the time certainty appears, the window for meaningful action has often already closed. 

• When you see this pattern repeating, what does it mean from an investment perspective?

A: For growth-stage companies, the shortage of people capable of making independent decisions quickly becomes a ceiling on growth. When this pattern repeats across a portfolio, it is no longer just an HR issue. 

At Zubr Capital, we often speak about a simple trio that creates value: leader, team, and capital. Two of these three elements are people. Without talented leaders and smart, capable teams, capital alone cannot drive sustainable growth. 

• How can investors respond to this in practice?

A: The objective is not to eliminate mistakes. Errors are inevitable – for junior professionals and experienced executives alike. The goal is to shorten the distance between theory and operational reality. 

One practical way we see to achieve this is to engage with talent earlier at the university level. The goal is to equip smart, high-potential individuals with concentrated, relevant knowledge and sustained practical exposure, allowing them to adapt faster and navigate complexity with greater confidence. 

• How does this translate into your own approach at Zubr Capital?

A: At Zubr Capital, we have been working with educational initiatives for years. We see education as a practical instrument for developing human capital within our ecosystem. 

Over time, one lesson became clear: decision-making cannot be developed through a single format. Some skills require time, repetition, and responsibility. Others demand speed, pressure, and constraint. 

That is why we operate through two complementary formats, each addressing a different side of the same challenge. 

• You mentioned skills that require time and responsibility. How can those actually be developed?

A: They can be developed in different ways, but only if the environment makes responsibility tangible. What matters is sustained exposure to real decision-making frameworks and repeated accountability over time. 

One example of how this can be structured is our League of Analysts — a seven-month program designed as a practical entry point into venture and private equity investing. 

What makes the difference is that errors are not treated as academic mistakes. They are discussed as investment risks. A flawed assumption is framed not as a wrong answer, but as a decision that could cost real money in a real business. 

Each course within the program has a clear practical purpose and opens new analytical perspectives. This allows participants to gradually integrate their knowledge and, in the final capstone project, propose several strategic alternatives for a portfolio company and assess the economic impact of their implementation. 

Over time, that repetition and exposure to consequences builds comfort with ambiguity and confidence in making decisions under uncertainty. This is how we work on the first side of the equation — the skills that require time, depth, and sustained responsibility. 

• And what about the other side — the skills that demand speed and pressure?

A: These skills require a very different environment. They develop when uncertainty is compressed, when time is limited, and when decisions must be made collectively and quickly. In such settings, hesitation becomes visible immediately. 

One way to create that kind of pressure is through intensive, short-cycle formats. In our case, this takes the form of the Zubr Capital Young Hackathon — a one-day challenge built around student startup ideas. 

Participants operate under strict time limits, incomplete information, and team pressure — conditions that closely resemble fast-moving market environments. They must cut through noise, identify what truly matters, and deliver working solutions within hours rather than weeks. 

If the League builds depth and sustained responsibility, the hackathon tests speed, prioritisation, and collective decision-making under constraint. Together, these environments address different dimensions of the same challenge. 

• Does this change how you think about value creation within an investment ecosystem?

A: It does. Educational initiatives within investment ecosystems are increasingly less an addition and more a necessity. The quality of decision-making has become both a primary competitive advantage and a significant risk factor. 

Investment today extends beyond capital allocation. At Zubr Capital, we often describe value creation as a combination of leader, team, and capital. Capital alone does not create growth — it is effective only when strong leaders and capable teams know how to use it to turn opportunity into results. 

A diploma remains an important foundation, but it is no longer a reliable indicator of readiness. Real professional value is measured by the ability to act under uncertainty and take responsibility for outcomes. 

Beyond education itself, such programs create a structured talent reserve for our fast-growing portfolio companies. By engaging high-potential students early, we create a steady annual inflow of prepared, decision-ready professionals. Some participants begin their careers within the fund, while others join our portfolio companies at different stages of growth, strengthening their teams as they scale. 

Ultimately, company success rarely depends only on the sophistication of a financial model. It depends on whether the people inside the organization have the competence and confidence to make a decision when the moment demands it – and whether they can work effectively together with a shared understanding of where they are going as a team. 

That is the kind of return on investment that defines long-term success. 

Alena Padalnitskaya, Head of League of Analysts, Zubr Capital