Новости за 13.07.2016

Why prediction markets failed to predict Brexit. “In the past, traders followed the polls too closely and sent the prediction markets up and down. But now the opposite is happening. Traders are treating markets odds as correct probabilities and not updating enough based on outside information. Belief in the correctness of prediction markets causes them to be too stable. When new information comes in, it gets discounted. People are using the current prediction odds as an anchor”

“Fear of terrorism is dividing the world into winners and losers. Spain, Germany, Greece and Italy are profiting. In Turkey, Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco, small family-owned companies and large hotel chains alike are going under. The losers see themselves in a war of sorts, one in which today’s enemy was yesterday’s friend. Unemployed Egyptians, desperate Tunisians — that’s how new refugees are made, or how legions of young men become susceptible to the siren song of Islamist preachers”

Classic profile of the New York powerhouse lawyer who made his name as “arrogant, red-baiting counsel” to Joe McCarthy; his later clients included Carmine ‘Lilo’ Galante, ‘Fat Tony’ Salerno, and Donald Trump. “Prospective clients who want to kill their husband, torture a business partner, break the government’s legs, hire Roy Cohn. He is a legal executioner—the toughest, meanest, loyalest, vilest, and one of the most brilliant lawyers in America. He is not a very nice man”

Goethe, yes — but which Goethe? “The dimensions of Goethe’s legacy are less of a hindrance than its diversity. He was active, over a lifespan of eighty-two years, as a poet, novelist, dramatist, essayist, librettist, translator, biographer, diarist, critic, theatre director, collector, painter and sculptor. He was no less committed to the sciences, extending the frontiers of knowledge in botany, optics, colour theory, climatology, and human and animal biology”. His collected works run to 143 volumes

Interview with veteran Russian foreign-policy analyst Sergei Karaganov. Deliberately provocative, but many interesting points. “The political elite in Russia don’t want domestic reform, they aren’t ready for it. As such, they welcome an external threat … We currently find ourselves in a situation where we don’t trust you in the least, after all of the disappointments of recent years. And we are reacting accordingly. You should know that we are smarter, stronger and more determined”