Hindsight - TUF 26 Finale: Modafferi vs. Montano in retrospect

07.12.2017 00:00

Bloody Elbow

Get the thoughts and musings of Dayne Fox of the TUF 26 Finale, from opening armbar from Gillian Robertson to the crowning of the inaugural flyweight champion, Nicco Montano.

Yes, I know I’m covering the TUF Finale late – and my look back on UFC 218 is running even later – but I did take the time to look back on the event. Was it a great event? No, but it could be said it was historic as a champion in a new weight division was established. No one expected Nicco Montano to emerge as the champion when the names for the tournament were announced, but here she stands as the inaugural flyweight champion.

Here are my thoughts on the TUF 26 Finale, with every fight and fighter involved broken down. The format is simple. The first bullet covers what was expected to happen and an attempt at a brief summary of what did happen. The next two bullets cover my thoughts on each fighter, how they did, and where they might be headed from here with the winner being covered first.

Gillian Robertson defeated Emily Whitmire via submission at 2:12 of RD1

Expectations/Result: Though neither Robertson nor Whitmire are finished products, Whitmire appeared to be a bit more polished, leading to her receiving an overwhelming amount of picks from analysts. Robertson scored an early takedown, but was promptly reversed, Whitmire stealing the top position. Whitmire landed some hard shots only for Robertson to snag her arm in a hurry for an armbar from the guard.
Robertson: Well… I can’t say I saw this coming. I doubt anyone else did either. Robertson has been working with ATT, one of the top fight camps in the world. She showed off some of her new skills – or refined if they aren’t new – when she snagged the armbar in lightning fast manner. Robertson is still very much a work-in-progress, but I like the composure she showed. I refuse to make a projection on her ceiling, but I will say the UFC needs patience with the 22-year old.
Whitmire: Not a good look for Whitmire. The mat was supposed to be her area of strength and she got caught by the youngest cast member. I have no clue if the UFC intends to give the cast members who probably don’t belong in the UFC a second chance to pick up a UFC win. They did with the TUF 20 cast, but that was also a deeper cast. Whitmire better hope they do. Otherwise, she’s going to have to put together an impressive streak on the regional scene to claw her way back.

Shana Dobson defeated Ariel Beck via TKO at 2:53 of RD2

Expectations/Result: This was a hard contest to pick. Beck looked to be a bit more refined on the show while Dobson, though raw, showed a lot of power. Beck attacked the legs and body of Dobson with kicks while Dobson focused her attack on the head. After a few hard kicks to the head of Beck, Dobson slowly started to take control in the second after a tight opening frame. A series of punches with the right hand from Dobson about halfway through the round caused Beck to collapse to the mat, not wanting anymore punishment.
Dobson: I’ll admit that Dobson’s raw talent was apparent, but I didn’t think she’d be able to tap into it in time for this contest. Clearly, I was wrong. Dobson’s strike selection was impressive as she didn’t get herself stuck in a pattern. I don’t know if the ending sequence was by design when she threw exclusively with her right hand, but it reminded me a lot of Andrei Arlovski. I’m sure Dobson would be happy to have a similar career arc to Arlovski, but there is no way I’m going predict anything like that when Dobson has such a long way to go.
Beck: I liked what I saw out of Beck early, but the way she collapsed following Dobson’s flurry has me worried Beck doesn’t have the toughness necessary to climb the ladder thanks to her delayed reaction when she hit the mat. Typically, that means a fighter wants out when they lose in that manner. Beck isn’t a great athlete, but she showed good technique and even a bit of power in her punches. If she can’t hold up to her opponent’s attack, she won’t be around very long.

Rachael Ostovich defeated Karine Gevorgyan via submission at 1:40 of RD1

Expectations/Result: Gevorgyan showed nothing to convince anyone she could hang with the fighters in the house. It felt academic that Ostovich would walk out the winner. It didn’t take long for her to prove most analysts right, taking Gevorgyan to the ground and securing the second armbar of the evening.
Ostovich: I’ve always liked Ostovich’s potential, but I’ve always wondered if she would benefit from a camp change. She has crumbled against fighters who can pressure her or hang with her on the ground. Obviously that didn’t happen here, but no one expected Gevorgyan to be much of a threat. This contest told us nothing. Ostovich’s next performance will be much more telling.
Gevorgyan: I do need to defend Gevorgyan in a sense. She had serious issues even making it into Vegas to make the fight. Word has it she traveled from Los Angeles to Vegas in an Uber, just barely making it on time for weigh-ins. Thus, I’m willing to give her a bit more leeway for not making weight. Besides that, I’ll be shocked if Gevorgyan gets another fight in the Octagon. She’s just not good.

Ryan Janes defeated Andrew Sanchez via TKO at 0:58 of RD3

Expectations/Result: Though Sanchez’s issues with stamina were no secret, Janes’ lack of attention to defense and lack of athleticism were seen as reasons to give Sanchez the benefit of the doubt. Sanchez nearly finished the fight in the first round, hurting Janes badly enough that most would agree a stoppage would have been appropriate. Instead, the referee allowed the fight to continue which allowed Janes to recover. As Sanchez had expended all his energy trying to finish Janes, he had little left in the second round and absolutely nothing in the final frame. Thus, the tireless Janes made an improbable comeback for the win as an exhausted Sanchez crumpled under the Canadian’s onslaught.
Janes: Easily the biggest win of his career, Janes may very well be UFC material after all. Of course, he wouldn’t be anything more than a low-level gatekeeper, but that does fill a valuable role of sorts for the development of prospects. The biggest takeaway besides the deep gas tanks: Janes’ defense is still horrible. Even as Janes made his comeback in the second round, Sanchez still landed solid shots as Janes marched forward. But no matter how hard Sanchez tried, Janes wouldn’t go away! The longer Janes hung around, the stronger he got. Despite his defensive holes, much credit needs to go towards Janes.
Sanchez: I had stated that Sanchez’s loss to Anthony Smith was no reason to panic. This loss may be reason to panic. Just like the Smith fight, Sanchez looked great early before fading and getting finished in the final frame. This is a disturbing trend for the former TUF winner made worse by the fact this was more of a collapse than a fade. When Sanchez couldn’t finish Janes in the first, I smelled an upset coming as Sanchez expended a LOT of energy trying to put him away. I don’t know if Sanchez isn’t self-aware or if he just didn’t care when he went for the kill, but he needs to do something about his shallow gas tank. Control his pace, improve his conditioning… whatever it takes as Sanchez is on the verge of being cut… if the UFC ever decides to start cutting people again.

Montana de la Rosa defeated Christina Marks via submission at 2:00 of RD1

Expectations/Result: I stated in my preview that six of Marks’ eight losses came via submission… and that didn’t even count her loss in the TUF house. How could I not pick de la Rosa who picked up five of her seven victories via submission? Marks foolishly followed de la Rosa to the ground when the youngster went to the ground. De la Rosa threw up an armbar attempt that Marks defended well early before flopping right into the danger zone, allowing de la Rosa to finish the armbar, the third of the evening.
De la Rosa: Some wanted to write of de la Rosa after her losses to Mackenzie Dern and Cynthia Calvillo. Have those people seen what Dern and Calvillo have been doing? De la Rosa’s wrestling and grappling are difficult for anyone to deal with and she’s been developing a strong counter punching game. At 22, de la Rosa is far from a finished product. I don’t think she’s athletic enough to become a future contender, but she can certainly become a mainstay of the top ten. I like where she is headed, though I would still advise patience.
Marks: What the hell was Marks thinking? She landed some heavy shots, looking good on her feet the brief amount of time they were standing. Then she decides to follow a grappler to the ground? With Marks reputation on the ground? Seriously, WTF? If she can find someone who is willing to stand and trade with her, Marks can be a hell of an entertaining fighter. When she makes the mistakes she makes with all of the experience she has under her belt, it’s hard to see her improving enough to stick around for a while.

Brett Johns defeated Joe Soto via submission at 0:30 of RD1

Expectations/Result: Most were picking Johns to emerge victorious, but that doesn’t mean anyone expected him to pick up an easy win over the veteran Soto. A brief striking exchange was followed by a Soto takedown. As they fell into a 50/50 position, Johns ties up Soto’s legs quickly, leaving many unsure of what he was doing. Soto tapped shortly after as the replay confirmed Johns set up a brutal calf slicer, only the second in UFC history.
Johns: Despite his status as an undefeated prospect, people have been slow to jump on the Johns train. Maybe this will change some minds. Up until this fight, a calf slicer had been as rare as a twister or an Ezekiel choke in the UFC. I know it isn’t going to be shown on highlight reels like the Showtime Kick or some other impressive KO, but that doesn’t take away from how awesome it was. Johns isn’t a physical phenom, but he’s a capable boxer, strong wrestler, and a creative submission artist. What isn’t there to like?
Soto: This hurts Soto a lot. He had a nice three-fight winning streak going after a rocky start to his UFC career and it was derailed in a hurry by a rarely seen submission. Soto isn’t a special physical talent which will prevent him from ever becoming a real contender, but he’s a smart fighter with a lot of experience. He’s hardly a walkover. For his sake, I hope the UFC doesn’t return him to serving as a gatekeeper at the bottom of the division. He’s better than that.

DeAnna Bennett fought Melinda Fabian to a majority draw

Expectations/Result: Bennett owns experience in some big fights, having fought for a title in Invicta and against other opponents now in the UFC. Her all-around abilities were expected to overwhelm Fabian. What we got was easily the worst contest of the entire weekend… in the UFC at least. Bennett looked for the takedown time after time and just ended up pushing Fabian against the fence for the majority of the contest. The two moments that defined the contest: Fabian head kicking Bennett at the end of the first round and knocking her silly; Fabian being deducted a point for a blatant fence grab which prevented a takedown. Outside of that, there was very little worth noting.
Bennett: There isn’t anything more Bennett could have done to turn fans against her. She wasn’t losing the striking game when they were at a distance, but she insisted on clinching up against the fence. You’d think you’d try another tactic to secure a takedown when you can’t secure it. Nope. It was the same single-leg over and over. It’s unlikely Bennett will be released after this contest, but if she puts on a performance anywhere near this one in her next outing, it will likely be a loss and an exit from the UFC.
Fabian: There wasn’t anyone who would have thought Fabian would have successfully fought off all of Bennett’s takedowns. It isn’t like it was one or two. According to Fight Metric, it was eleven! Fabian has worked hard to improve her takedown defense and it showed up in a big way. Her standup was pretty good too, best illustrated by her head kick at the end of the first. If it hadn’t been so close to the end of the round, she would have walked away with the win. I’m not going to be outraged at the point being deducted for the cage grab as I’m sick of fighters getting away with cheating. It may have cost Fabian a fight she deserved to win, but it would be hypocritical of me to tell the refs to call for more severe consequences for cheating only to blast them when they do.

Gerald Meerschaert defeated Eric Spicely via TKO at 2:18 of RD2

Expectations/Result: Neither Meerschaert nor Spicely are very athletic. In fact, both are relatively one-dimensional. Thus, the contest came down to picking whoever has more dimensions to their game, which was Meerschaert. Spicely put a scare into Meerschaert in the first round, getting his back and threatening with a RNC for a few minutes. Meerschaert escaped though and forced Spicely to stand and trade. Given Spicely expended a lot of energy in the first, it felt academic. Meerschaert landed a BRUTAL kick to the body, causing Spicely to collapse as he clutched his midsection.
Meerschaert: Meerschaert isn’t known for his striking, but he picked the perfect time to show that he can utilize it from time to time. His UFC contract is up. He isn’t a name fighter by any means, but a 3-1 record with all three wins coming via stoppage isn’t too bad. He’s entertaining as hell and showed resilience in working his way out of Spicely’s RNC. He’ll never be an actual contender, but he is a tough test for youngsters making their way up as he can usually provide a trick or two they haven’t seen.
Spicely: If nothing else, you can be assured that Spicely’s contests won’t ever go the distance. This contest showcased what is so dangerous about him as well as exactly why he’ll never be more than a low-level gatekeeper… at best. Meerschaert was in serious trouble when Spicely got his back. On several occasions, it looked like Spicely had the finish. Once Meerschaert escaped though, Spicely didn’t stand a chance. He expended a lot of energy getting the fight where he wanted in the first place and doesn’t have the requisite standup skills to hand with just mediocre fighters. Even worse, Meerschaert looked like a decent athlete compared to Spicely… and Spicely may be the only guy in the division who is less athletic than Meerschaert. Expect Spicely to get one more chance.

Lauren Murphy defeated Barb Honchak via split decision

Expectations/Result: A contest that was thrown together when Sijara Eubanks missed weight for the title fight, most appeared to favor the technically sound Honchak. When the contest started, it was impossible to define a clear winner. Honchak attacked early with jabs, outlanding Murphy. However, Murphy was landing harder punches. The final two rounds featured a mix of grappling and striking with neither fighter taking a clear advantage. Though most analysts agreed that Honchak was the winner, the judges said otherwise, awarding Murphy a hard-fought victory.
Murphy: Even though I scored the contest for Honchak, I have no problem with Murphy getting the decision. The fight was close enough I can see a strong case either way. Besides, Murphy has lost her fair share of split decisions. What impressed me most was Murphy’s fluidity in her grappling and scrambling. I can’t recall her looking so smooth in any of her previous contests. That isn’t to say she didn’t end up in some bad situations, but she was calm enough to wait out the situation and escape before turning the tables in the third. It appears as though the move to flyweight will be a good move for her UFC career.
Honchak: She may have come out on the losing end of the stick, but I haven’t seen anyone who was disappointed with Honchak’s performance. Her jab looked as sharp as ever, she mixed in a steady stream of kicks, and came closer to ending the match with her armbar in the third. With the loss, Honchak is likely out of title contention and it would be a longshot for her to get back into it at the age of 38. That doesn’t mean she doesn’t have a role. There is always room in a division for a veteran gatekeeper and Honchak will be able to do so at flyweight where the division is forming its identity.

Sean O’Malley defeated Terrion Ware via unanimous decision

Expectations/Result: For someone who had yet to fight in the UFC, it sure felt like O’Malley was getting a lot of undeserved attention. Not that the hype wasn’t understandable given his exciting style, but you’d think the UFC would wait for him to pick up a single win on the big stage before pushing the 23-year old. By the end of the contest, most would say O’Malley lived up to the hype. He started strong, throwing a barrage of high impact moves at Ware only for the veteran to keep coming. The hard pace began to wear on O’Malley, resulting in Ware taking the second round behind a pressure-heavy attack. O’Malley found his second wind for the final frame as Ware faded, giving the youngster a hard-earned decision.
O’Malley: Depending on your definition of the O’Malley hype train, I may or may not be on board. If you think he’s going to be a mainstay on the roster as an action fighter, I’m all in. If you think he’s going to be a future contender at bantamweight, I’m not hopping aboard quite yet. O’Malley showed a lot of guts to keep throwing after he was clearly gassed. Not everyone has shown the ability to do that as he possesses rare athletic abilities. Before I’m willing to declare O’Malley a future contender, I was to see him make some sort of effort to dodge his opponent’s offense. Regardless of that, O’Malley is proving to be a worthy prospect. One thing I’d like to see is O’Malley use basic offense such as low kicks and jabs to set up his flashy offense.
Ware: Much like Honchak, Ware has nothing to be ashamed of. He fought an intelligent contest, letting the younger O’Malley throw hard shot after hard shot, resulting in O’Malley gassing as Ware blocked the majority of his offense. Ware just didn’t have enough in the tank himself to sustain his pressure and it ended up being the beginning of the end. One has to wonder if things would have turned out differently if Ware had a functional wrestling game, but he couldn’t get the youngster to the mat to ride out the clock. Given the entertainment value of this contest, I find it hard to believe Ware won’t get a third chance to pick up his first UFC victory.

Nicco Montano defeated Roxanne Modafferi via unanimous decision

Expectations/Result: I’m not going to lie. I completely picked with my heart when I picked Modafferi to win and I’m sure the majority of the Bloody Elbow staff did the same. It isn’t that we didn’t see the potential in the much younger Montano. We all just found the possibility of Modafferi returning to the UFC and claiming gold to be such an awesome story after she previously washed out after one fight. Modafferi had her chances to win the contest, going after armbars in the first and final rounds, but it was Montano’s continual use of the jab and low kicks with the occasional takedown mixed in for good measure that swayed the judges. The younger fighter walked out of the cage with gold strapped around her waste and the title of the inaugural UFC’s women’s flyweight champion.
Montano: There are two things that need to be made very clear. Montano is without a doubt the UFC’s flyweight champion. She overcame a difficult tournament, beating Modafferi, Honchak, de la Rosa, and Murphy in the process. That’s an impressive list of victims. However – and this is the second point – no one believes she is actually the best flyweight in the world. Most of the world’s top flyweights opted not to participate in the tournament, deciding it would be easier to cherry pick whoever emerges victorious if they can get the first shot at the title. Remember how Joanna Jedrzejczyk did the same thing to Carla Esparza? Yeah, expect a similar scenario to play out at flyweight. It’s worth noting though that no one believes we’ve seen the best out of Montano yet either. Given her impressive use of angles, sheer volume, and overall wrestling game, that isn’t a small compliment. While few expect Montano to remain champion for long, look for her to remain a linchpin for a very long time.
Modafferi: Modafferi’s youthful exuberance make it easy to forget that she is already 35. More so than her actual age, her 14 years in the sport is even more telling. In a career that has consisted of at least 40 contests if you count her exhibition fights on TUF – both appearances – that is a hell of a lot of mileage. What cost her against Montano was an inability to maintain a consistent attack the same way Montano did. Modafferi simply doesn’t have the athletic ability to throw strikes in a fluid motion the same way Montano did. That isn’t to take away from the improvements Modafferi has made since relocating to Las Vegas. Her late-career turnaround has been impressive, but it seems safe to say her already limited physical abilities will soon begin to decline. Until then, look for her to remain a fan favorite who challenges youngsters with her savvy and deep bag of tricks.

Well, those are my thoughts. Until next time....