Lady Luck could ultimately decide whether Biden or Trump wins
When the presidency is finally decided, after all the intrusive analysis, victory and defeat may be distinguished this way.
This is not meant to be an April Fool’s Day joke. But will good or bad luck determine who wins the presidency? Put another way, Napoleon famously asked of a general “Does he have luck?”
Last week did not go well for President Joe Biden. Is that a matter of bad luck, bad timing or the fickleness of politics? On the other hand, Donald Trump’s luck seems unlimited.
A series of events have made Biden’s run for reelection that much more difficult. The collision in Baltimore Harbor that brought down much of the Francis Scott Key bridge will have negative consequences for supply chains as that port is closed, possibly for weeks. One effect is likely slower economic progress. And clearing the harbor of debris and rebuilding the bridge will test the federal government's competence — for good or ill.
On Thursday, the Biden team had scheduled a fundraising bonanza at New York’s Radio City Music Hall. Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were among the headliners. Some $25 million was raised. While pro-Palestinian protestors boycotted the extravaganza, a hurricane of negative PR was dumping on Biden some 25 miles to the east on Long Island.
At a wake honoring a New York City policeman shot dead by an assailant with 21 arrests, Biden’s opponent appeared to lend his condolences. The future campaign ads from this will be plentiful and devastating. Donald Trump will be shown side-by-side paying his respects to a fallen cop while President Biden will be pictured with the big-money elites soliciting campaign funds.
This was simply bad luck and bad timing. It was pure coincidence that the two events took place simultaneously. What could the president do? If Biden showed up, that would have looked cynical. Had all three Democratic presidents attended the wake, it would have been over the top. No matter, Trump scored big on this — a matter of luck?
Robert F. Kennedy Jr’s announcement that he was running as an independent was certainly not good luck for Team Biden. Kennedy has already made his mark in the polls garnering support in the low double digits. In an election expected to be exceedingly close, Biden cannot afford to lose any votes. It is unclear whether Kennedy will hurt Biden or Trump more. But most believe this is not good news for team Biden.
On the other hand, Donald Trump has had an amazingly good run of luck.
Regarding his court cases, surely the trial in Georgia over alleged election tampering is foundering. Atlanta District Attorney Fani Willis’s personal relationship with lead prosecuting attorney Nathan Wade created the perception of a conflict of interest and showed spectacularly poor judgment. The case is under appeal. While four of the charges have been dismissed, the case is clouded no matter how much evidence of wrongdoing the prosecution may have obtained.
In the Mar-a-Lago classified materials trial, Trump-appointed judge Aileen Cannon made several rulings that seemed very much to the defendant’s benefit. In any event, it is far from certain that the trial will begin before the election. And, of course, if Trump wins, he can force the Justice Department to drop the case or self-pardon.
In the New York fraud case over Trump’s false inflation of his net worth, a bail of $454 million seems excessive to most people. That will play out in the court of public opinion. However, with Trump unable to find a lender, the bond was cut by about a third. And then Trump’s social media company went public, increasing his net worth by as much as $4 billion.
Biden and his advisers cannot ignore this parallel run of good and bad luck. Indeed, Biden must be baffled by how Trump’s luck seems impervious to misdeed. Whatever poor old Joe does, events seem to conspire against him. No matter how much trouble ensnares Trump, a way out materializes. One wonders whether Trump himself realizes that.
The aphorism that one makes his or her own luck may or may not be true. However, if the 2024 presidential race continues on the current course, it may be defined by exactly that. My family motto is better lucky than good.
When the presidency is finally decided, after all the intrusive analysis, victory and defeat may be distinguished this way. Who had the better luck? Amazing.
Harlan Ullman Ph.D. is a senior advisor at the Atlantic Council and the prime author of the “shock and awe” military doctrine. His 12th book, “The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Looming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at Large,” is available on Amazon. He can be reached on Twitter @harlankullman.