Mexico will elect its first female president — but which one?

The result and the margin of victory will determine Mexico’s economic and political trajectory for the rest of this decade.

On June 2, Mexico will make history by choosing between two female candidates for president. However, this election will not be between these two women only; but rather, between the current president — with all the power of the state — and an opposition candidate who emerged from a citizen-led movement.

Although President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who holds a 68 percent approval rating, is not officially on the ballot (re-election is constitutionally banned), he has been actively campaigning for years and leveraging social spending to ensure that his base votes in favor of his de facto appointee, Claudia Sheinbaum, and gives him the qualified majority in Congress (two-thirds) to change the Constitution, to make permanent what he calls his country's "Fourth Transformation."

For this, he has added substantial pressure to state finances. Mexico’s budgetary deficit is estimated to reach 4.9 percent of national GDP, a level not seen in decades, threatening Mexico's credit rating. Under Lopez Obrador, welfare and pension program spending has almost quadrupled, from $8 billion in 2018 to $30 billion in 2024, benefiting about 25 million families in Mexico. 

This contributes to his goal, along with subsidies to lower fuel prices and electricity bills, an increase in the minimum wage to historic highs and an economy that is benefiting from the nearshoring wave.  This, despite key security failures that are impacting the entire population.

Morena controls 23 out of Mexico’s 32 states whose governors are also campaigning to protect their turf. It is no surprise, then, that Sheinbaum leads the polls by anywhere from 20 or 30 points and that Morena, together with satellite allied parties, is also leading the congressional race, 53 percent to 29 percent for the opposition coalition.

Sheinbaum, who is more technocratic than charismatic, shares Lopez Obrador’s anti-neoliberal economic ideology and leftist nostalgia. Born to a middle-class, Jewish immigrant family, she studied physics and has ample managerial and political experience, mainly as the mayor of Mexico City, the biggest city in the country and an important launchpad to the presidency. More importantly, her loyalty to Lopez Obrador has earned her high marks. He trusts her to continue his policies — and to protect him and his family from potential prosecution after he leaves office.

She is a firm believer in the role of the state in energy and has unconditionally followed in Lopez Obrador's footsteps. In 2008, she led a movement against the privatization of the national oil company, Pemex, and last year, she was a leading voice behind Lopez Obrador's push to nationalize lithium. However, if elected, she has also pledged to increase the country's renewable generation from 35 percent to 50 percent by 2030. Perhaps, as an environmental scientist, she will balance what appear to be contradictory objectives.

She has gone so far as to embrace Lopez Obrador's recent populist reform proposals, which would increase spending, diminish the judiciary’s power and weaken independent checks and balances. The truth is, she cannot do otherwise if she wants to win. Thus far, thanks to the independence of Mexico’s Supreme Court, Lopez Obrador has been stymied in his efforts to weaken the electoral institute, remove civilian control over the National Guard and favor the state-owned electrical power company over private enterprises.

As Mayor of Mexico City, she had a more pragmatic approach to government. But we will only find out for sure if and when she is inaugurated on Oct. 1.

Yet despite Sheinbaum’s air of inevitability, official campaigns have just started. Xóchitl Gálvez, the opposition candidate unknown until recently, has gained some momentum, working hard to close the gap between the coalition of parties she represents and Morena.  A charismatic senator with an indigenous background who started as a vendor the streets of Mexico City, her life story is the Mexican equivalent of the American dream. 

Gálvez is a successful, self-made tech businesswoman with an engineering degree and firm believer in free market economics. Her policies will aim to open the energy sector, attract private investment, boost trade, and reduce the influence of the public sector and the military in the economy. Gálvez has sought to make the country’s profound security crisis a major point of her campaign, in contrast to Lopez Obrador’s hands-off policy of “hugs, not bullets” — which has resulted in the bloodiest six-year term in Mexico’s history.

More than 100 million voters will choose not only the new president, but also a new Chamber of Deputies, the Senate, eight State governors, the Mexico City Mayor, deputies for thirty-one state congresses and representatives to state legislatures in more than 1,500 municipalities. The result and the margin of victory will determine not only Lopez Obrador’s legacy, but more importantly Mexico’s economic and political trajectory for the rest of this decade. 

Whether it’s Sheinbaum or Gálvez, to operate, the next president will have to shore up state finances, either by cutting spending, generating growth — or both. And, for Mexico to grow and prosper, they will need to create a more business-friendly environment to attract investment. 

The irony is that, for Sheinbaum to succeed, she would be better off with a divided congress. That would help her keep the radical wing of Morena and Lopez Obrador at bay. The opposite will be true for Gálvez. She would need the full support of her coalition parties, which so far she has not enjoyed.

In either case, let's hope that voters in key northern States — the ones that depend the most on U.S. exports — make their voices heard better than they did in the 2018 election, when higher southern participation gave Lopez Obrador his landslide victory.

Mariana Campero is the former president of the Mexican Council on Foreign Relations and a senior associate at CSIS Americas, where Ryan C. Berg serves as director.